How to Calculate Sunday Roast Portions (Without the Waste)
Stop guessing your meat orders. The Smart Pub Tools Roast Forecaster is the first commercially available algorithm designed specifically for the UK independent pub trade. It replaces the “back of a fag packet” math with a data-driven system that guarantees margin protection.
The “70% GP” Myth
Most landlords calculate Gross Profit (GP) based on the raw weight of the meat. This is a fatal error.
- The Reality: A Topside of Beef shrinks by 20–25% during roasting.
- The Result: If you price your menu based on raw weight, your actual bankable GP drops to ~55%. This tool automatically factors in commercial shrinkage rates for Beef, Pork, and Lamb, ensuring the numbers you see are the numbers you actually bank.
How the Weather Algorithm Works
A rainy Sunday in July is different from a sunny Sunday in May. The Roast Forecaster uses a weighted “Walk-in Multiplier” based on 20 years of gastropub data:
- Sunny (+25%): Adjusts for heavy walk-in trade and beer garden dwell time.
- Raining (+10%): Adjusts for “comfort food” seekers and extended table occupancy.
- Storm/Snow (-10%): Automatically buffers for late cancellations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the correct portion size for a commercial Sunday Roast? For a standard gastropub price point (£16–£22), we recommend 160g–180g of cooked meat. This tool calculates the raw order required to hit that cooked weight after shrinkage.
Why does the tool tell me to prep for 95% of bookings? This is the “Rory Sutherland Protocol.” It is operationally better to put a “Sold Out of Beef” sign up at 5:00 PM (creating a perception of scarcity and quality) than to discount leftover meat on a Monday. Running out is a marketing strategy; throwing food away is negligence.
Does this account for trimmings? Yes. The tool calculates exact veg prep requirements based on commercial yields:
- Potatoes: 350g raw weight per cover (accounting for peeling loss).
- Cauliflower Cheese: 100g raw head weight per cover.
- Yorkies: Automates a +20% buffer for kitchen errors (dropped trays/low rise).